# Re: wet weed pulling

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Posted by Zonie on August 20, 2021 at 17:59:10

In Reply to: Re: wet weed pulling posted by Wet Weatherman on August 20, 2021 at 15:08:18:

In all fairness to the National Weather Service, there had been a flash flood watch for four days, and there had been several flash floods in the area, so they weren't "all wet" about that. It's understandable that they thought the convective potential of the atmosphere had been exhausted for a while. I thought so too.

I live in Phoenix, and most of the people who post on this site do so from the mid latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. In August we generally have a weak southeasterly monsoonal circulation rather than the prevailing westerly circulation that prevails further north and in winter here (thus being the dipole to the southeast monsoon, the northwest monsoon). This means that when we have summer thunderstorms, they don't generally move into the area from elsewhere. They generally propagate from downflows of other thunderstorms and form right on top of us. This can be very hard to predict.

A major problem with computer modeling is low station density. Weather stations are generally in place in populated areas, and we have a lot of unpopulated areas in central Arizona. In upper air observations, there are only two stations in the entire state. The upshot is that the computers can't model that for which they don't get information. There are many subgrid scale disturbances (mesoscale) that don't show up in the observations and therefore aren't modeled well by the computers.

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